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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."