🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|