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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.